A survey by the National Retail Federation predicts that 54.4% of Americans plan to celebrate the traditionally Irish holiday this year, the highest in the nine years the NRF has been conducting the research. On average, the NRF forecasts that each of these leprechauns will spend $35, for a total of $4.6 billion.
Eight out of ten say they will wear green, 28.2% plan to go to a party at a bar or restaurant, 19.1% plan to go to a private party, 23.8% will decorate their home or office, and 32.3% will make a special dinner to celebrate.
But for restaurants, having the holiday fall on a weekend may be a bit of a bummer. "Weekends are typically busier than weekdays for restaurants, so it's actually better for the restaurant operator when holidays fall on a slower day of the week, like Monday or Tuesday, for a traffic boost," says a spokesperson for the National Restaurant Association.
Others are betting that the weekend timing will extend festivities, and mean bigger spending all around. In Philadelphia, for example, where the Irish are the second-largest ethnic group, "every bar, restaurant, and practically every street corner is packed, even if St. Patrick's Day falls on a Tuesday," says Denise Foley, editor of Irishphiladelpia.com. "Having it fall on a Saturday is going to be like Black Friday after Thanksgiving for local merchants and bar/restaurant owners. It's a day when anyone selling anything Irish is going to make their profit for the year. It's all good."
Some cities are worried that crowd control will be a greater issue than usual. Organizers in Hoboken, N.J. actually cancelled its parade after they were told it would have to take place on a weekday to manage the mayhem. (The city is still delaying bar openings, bringing in extra cops, and adding 50% more portable toilets than in years past.)
(Source: Marketing Daily, 03/08/12)
Retailers are booking lots of TV ad time to lure shoppers.
The outlook for consumer holiday spending isn't particularly strong this year, with forecasters predicting growth of 2.5 to 3 percent over 2010, about half last year's growth rate.
But spot television spending should be very healthy despite that lukewarm forecast, ending a string of months of flat or declining spending following a softer-than-expected spring.
The reason is simple.
Shoppers still feeling the pinch of a down economy are looking for the lowest prices, and retailers are competing fiercely to reel them in with gimmicks like midnight openings on Black Friday.
They're willing to use any means to get consumers into the stores.
"Fourth quarter rates are up, and we're anticipating sell-out conditions in some markets," one East Coast media buyer says.
That will be a big change from recent months in spot TV. During the first half of the year spot spending fell 1.2 percent, according to Kantar Media data analyzed by the TVB.
Spending took a hit during second quarter when Japanese auto companies largely suspended advertising in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami that hit their country, leading to production and supply problems.
That led other automakers to pull back as well because they had less competition. The lack of auto advertising meant an excess of inventory of some markets, where pricing flatlined or dipped.
But things are looking better for fourth quarter, especially the final six weeks of the year.
Many retailers, including department and discount stores, have already been advertising their holiday sales for weeks. Pre-holiday sales have also been more popular this year, prompting more spending to advertise these new offers.
Clothing retailers have been particularly active, note buyers, and electronics should be growing as well as retailers battle to offer better prices on holiday must-haves like tablets, smartphones and TVs.
Also helping the fourth-quarter spot outlook is a small influx of political spending ahead of the surge of campaign ads in the first quarter.
Only a handful of states with early primaries will benefit from this spending, but they are important states that will set the tone for the later primary season, including Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
In first quarter, when many states will see the start of the lowest unit rate political window, political should pick up for the post-holiday decline in retail spending and keep spot TV spending on the rise.
ZenithOptimedia predicts that spot TV spending will be up 8 percent next year, to $22.6 billion.
Toni Fitzgerald - Media Life
Positive holiday performance could have a far-reaching effect. With consumer spending accounting for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, robust sales could breathe life into what has been a sluggish year so far for the broader economy.
Many industry analysts are predicting a good -- but not great -- holiday season.
The chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers, a major retail trade group, estimates that sales will rise 3.5% for November and December combined. Last year, sales during the same period beat expectations, rising 4.4% in what industry analysts called the best holiday results since 2006.
"It's a time when we do the greatest amount of our business, but it is also a season that defines retailers," said Jim Sluzewski, a spokesman at Macy's Inc., which last year saw 28% of its sales in the last two months of the year.
After the recession-plagued 2008 holiday season, the worst in more than four decades, retailers say they've become much more savvy about confronting economic challenges. They're not ordering too much inventory and they're making sure that prices are budget-friendly.
"We are well prepared," Sluzewski said. "Our business is very flexible and we have a lot of ways to adjust our business no matter what happens."
Retailers, which ring up as much 40% of their annual sales during the last two months of the year, also are relying on a tried-and-true rule: Consumers love to splurge when the holidays roll around.
Shopper Deven Ronnquist, 63, was already keeping an eye out for holiday gifts for her family on a trip to the Glendale Galleria in California recently, setting a loose gift budget of $3,000.
"We have a tradition of spending way too much -- we just have a ring of presents around the tree," the La Crescenta administrative assistant said. "I'm going to work hard to pay down some of my credit cards in the meantime."
The start of holiday shopping comes amid skittishness over the volatile stock market, stubbornly high unemployment and tight credit that has constrained business growth. Strong holiday sales could provide much-needed momentum, said Michael Dart, a retail strategist at consulting firm Kurt Salmon.
"If we have a solid holiday season and there's a sense that the consumer is resilient...I think you get more bullish on hiring and it could start to move the employment rate," he said. "It could ease a lot of the anxiety that permeates every business and permeates the consumer psyche right now."
Retail analysts say the key segment to watch will be middle-income consumers. Wealthy Americans have spent freely on luxuries such as designer handbags, jewelry and watches, and lower-income shoppers seeking bargains have led to steady sales increases at discount chains, dollar stores and warehouse clubs.
Analysts say the back-to-school selling season, which often provides a hint of how the holidays will fare, has so far produced solid results. Despite stock market turmoil and Hurricane Irene, sales at major chain stores rose 4.4% year over year in August, the key month of the period, according to Thomson Reuters' tally of 23 retailers.
"We've been seeing consistent spending occurring even in discretionary sectors," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis at data service MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse. "This is just a consistent thing that has not correlated with the deterioration in consumer confidence. It's been an interesting phenomenon in 2011."
Retailers are still keeping their biggest plans under wraps, but they have been busy preparing for the holidays all year: ordering merchandise, designing festive window displays and special holiday catalogs, and planning Black Friday promotions.
"Target begins preparing for the holiday season right after Christmas," said Cary Strouse, senior vice president of stores for Target Corp., which recently announced four exclusive designer partnerships that will be in stores in time for the holidays, including a fashion line with Gwen Stefani.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the nation's largest retailer, will be adding to its holiday selection this year, including stocking more Christmas villages and outdoor lawn decor. The company said its focus would be on offering the lowest prices to its shoppers.
"We know our customers are feeling budget strains, and we are committed to helping ease that strain," said Tara Raddohl, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman.
Jodi Odell, 46, said she intends to spend big for the holidays even though she has been trimming expenses because business has been slow at the architecture and design firm she and her husband run.
"My husband and I have already talked about it," the Encino resident said recently as she shopped at the Americana at Brand in Glendale. "We plan it out in September. The kids give me their lists early and I will have it all knocked out by November. It's therapeutic when nothing else is going well."
Although Odell won't be cutting back on gifts for her four children, she and her husband, Otis, will only do stockings for each other this year, she said.
Still, she's hoping for a little blue box.
"Tiffany," she said, "fits very well in a stocking."
(Source: Los Angeles Times, 09/05/11)
