September Surge Changes Auto Forecasters' Tone

New-vehicle sales hit their fastest annual pace in more than four years in September, but the month could have been even better. After all, fleet sales were flat, fuel prices were unseasonably high and automakers laid off the incentives. 

September's seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 14.9 million exceeded expectations by a wide margin, and the surge was driven entirely by retail gains, said Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's top auto analyst.

So are long-term forecasts being revisited?

The strong September -- in which sales rose 13 percent to 1,188,899 units -- has so far not prompted official forecasts to rise. But it has changed the tone of conversation among automakers and analysts, many of whom had revised 2012 forecasts downward since the first quarter.

Bill Fay, Toyota Division general manager, still expects 2012 industry sales of 14.3 million but now adds "and maybe a notch above."

R.L. Polk hasn't raised its forecast of 14.3 million this year and 15.2 million in 2013, "but we reviewed it for upward revision after August and September sales beat expectations," said Tom Libby, North American forecast manager.

TrueCar.com is still forecasting 14.4 million this year and 15.0 million next year.

Morgan Stanley's Jonas called September's 14.9 million annual selling rate "dreadful, no better than 1978." But he says the underlying strength of the market is consumers being forced to replace the aging U.S. vehicle fleet, which he says averages 11 years old with 130,000 miles on the odometer.

Fleet volume rose just 1 percent in September and retail jumped 15 percent for the seven largest automakers, which dominate sales to fleet buyers, according to theAutomotive News Data Center.

"If fleet had been as strong as retail, the September SAAR would have been 15.2 million," Jonas said.

Kurt McNeil, General Motors' U.S. sales boss, said GM pickup sales slipped because fleet volume fell in September, but the company isn't turning to incentives on them.

"We don't necessarily have the newest truck in the industry, but we still have the lowest incentive spend," he said.

Industrywide, per-vehicle incentives ranged from flat to slightly lower in September, according to TrueCar.com.

And gasoline prices, which normally decline after the summer peak driving season, remained unusually high. The mid-September average of $3.83 a gallon was only five cents off the year's highest level, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

That may have helped sales of fuel-efficient new cars in September, TrueCar.com analyst Jesse Toprak said, but it was a damper on trucks.

"Trucks are hurt by lingering high fuel costs," he said. "Small cars are remarkably strong, but trucks are weak."

In addition, small businesses may be spooked by the uncertainties of the upcoming presidential election and Congress' so-called Dec. 31 fiscal cliff and therefore deferring pickup purchases, Toprak said.

"Truck sales are based on prospects of business growing," he said. "Maybe the deals are not that great on trucks and so buyers are waiting. We'll probably see more incentives in the fourth quarter as is typical."

GM's McNeil believes auto sales will continue to outperform the slow recovery pace of the general economy, "which is particularly good news for GM as we walk into a cadence of new product in 2013 and 2014."

(Source: Automotive News, 10/15/12)