The outlook for consumer holiday spending isn't particularly strong this year, with forecasters predicting growth of 2.5 to 3 percent over 2010, about half last year's growth rate.
But spot television spending should be very healthy despite that lukewarm forecast, ending a string of months of flat or declining spending following a softer-than-expected spring.
The reason is simple.
Shoppers still feeling the pinch of a down economy are looking for the lowest prices, and retailers are competing fiercely to reel them in with gimmicks like midnight openings on Black Friday.
They're willing to use any means to get consumers into the stores.
"Fourth quarter rates are up, and we're anticipating sell-out conditions in some markets," one East Coast media buyer says.
That will be a big change from recent months in spot TV. During the first half of the year spot spending fell 1.2 percent, according to Kantar Media data analyzed by the TVB.
Spending took a hit during second quarter when Japanese auto companies largely suspended advertising in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami that hit their country, leading to production and supply problems.
That led other automakers to pull back as well because they had less competition. The lack of auto advertising meant an excess of inventory of some markets, where pricing flatlined or dipped.
But things are looking better for fourth quarter, especially the final six weeks of the year.
Many retailers, including department and discount stores, have already been advertising their holiday sales for weeks. Pre-holiday sales have also been more popular this year, prompting more spending to advertise these new offers.
Clothing retailers have been particularly active, note buyers, and electronics should be growing as well as retailers battle to offer better prices on holiday must-haves like tablets, smartphones and TVs.
Also helping the fourth-quarter spot outlook is a small influx of political spending ahead of the surge of campaign ads in the first quarter.
Only a handful of states with early primaries will benefit from this spending, but they are important states that will set the tone for the later primary season, including Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
In first quarter, when many states will see the start of the lowest unit rate political window, political should pick up for the post-holiday decline in retail spending and keep spot TV spending on the rise.
ZenithOptimedia predicts that spot TV spending will be up 8 percent next year, to $22.6 billion.
Toni Fitzgerald - Media Life
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