Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Ford, GM, VW & Subaru post double digit US salesincreases in Nov.

Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., Volkswagen and Subaru of America posted double-digit U.S. sales increases in November, a sign that the market's positive momentum in October is continuing.

Ford sales jumped 20 percent to 146,956 light vehicles last month from November a year earlier. GM sales rose 12 percent to 168,670 units. Subaru gained 22 percent to 20,792.

The results from the first automakers to report support analysts' predictions that the U.S. seasonally annual adjusted selling rate would remain above 12 million. October's SAAR of 12.2 million was the industry's first month above 12 million since the cash-for-clunkers-fed sales flurry in August 2009.

“GM's sales were better than we expected,” said Rebecca Lindland, director of strategic review for IHS Automotive, which forecast GM sales to be 162,000 for the month. “They aren't blowing the doors out, but it's a slow, steady recovery.”

Ford's 20 percent gain factored November 2009 sales from Volvo. Without the Swedish unit Ford has since sold, the year-over-year increase in November for the Ford, Mercury and Lincoln brands was 24 percent.

At GM, Buick led the way with a 36 percent increase, and GMC advanced 30 percent. Cadillac gained 21 percent and Chevrolet was up 18 percent, GM said in a statement today. The four brands combined were up 21 percent.

Through November, those brands have sold nearly 103,014 more vehicles than GM sold for the same period in 2009, when it had eight brands.

Nearly all GM vehicles sold in November were 2011 models, allowing the brands to continue to increase average transaction prices, said Don Johnson, GM vice president of U.S. sales operations. Through November, the average price is up $1,300 from a year ago.

Incentives averaged 10.4 percent of GM transaction prices, about the same percentage as the rest of the industry, Johnson said.

GM sales are in line with analysts' earlier forecasts that overall November U.S. sales would rise about 10 percent from a year ago, driven by month-end discounts and a slow rebound in consumer demand.

“The pace of light vehicle sales appears to have remained above the important psychological level of 12 million units in November,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said in a note to clients last week.

Volkswagen AG reported a 24.2 percent increase in VW brand sales last month. Jetta sedan sales climbed 49 percent.

Barclays expects sales to reach about a 12.1 million on a SAAR basis. That would be strong enough to show that “the consumer is crawling back, particularly in the more affluent and higher quality credit segments.”

Barclays predicted that Ford and Hyundai Motor Co. would have the biggest sales gains among major players, continuing a trend that has seen the two automakers take share from rivals in 2010.

The final weekend of November sales were lifted by Thanksgiving holiday deals sponsored by individual dealers and manufacturers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co., analysts said.

“We're starting to feel better about how the market is going,” said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at auto sales tracking and shopping service Edmunds.com. “It looks like we're in that slow recovery pattern.”

Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a November SAAR of about 12 million vehicles. Bloomberg's average of eight analysts' predictions was slightly higher, at 12.2 million.

Toyota is expected to report a 2 percent sales drop in November from a year earlier, according to Edmunds.com and TrueCar.com forecasts. This will make Toyota the only major automaker with a decline in that period, despite having increased spending on incentives from a year earlier.

It illustrates the difficulties Toyota still faces in winning back U.S. consumers, more than a year after starting recalls that rocked its reputation for quality and safety.

Reuters and Bloomberg contributed to this report.

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