Easter Sales Continue Climb to Pre-Recession Levels

Not since 1943 have Americans seen an Easter fall this late in the calendar, but it seems the delayed holiday won't impact consumers' eagerness to spend on décor, food and even new spring apparel.

According to the National Retail Federation's 2011 Consumer Intentions and Actions survey, conducted by BIGresearch, the average consumer is expected to spend $131.04 on everything from candy to clothes -- up from last year's $118.60 but not quite to pre-recession levels. Total spending on Easter related merchandise is expected to reach $14.6 billion.

"Due to such a late holiday, Easter promotions will last all spring long," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "Though lingering concerns over food and energy prices may keep shoppers from splurging, retailers are expecting consumers to stock up on apparel, home décor and of course food and candy, a good sign leading into the much busier and important months to come."

Food and candy will account for most of a consumer's budget, bringing in $2.1 billion in candy sales and $4.5 billion in food sales alone. The average person will spend slightly more on each than they did last year -- $18.55 on candy, compared to $17.29 last year, and $40.05 on food, up from $37.45 last year.

Many Americans will take advantage of retailers' spring sales to buy new clothing for the entire family. The average celebrant will spend $21.51 on colorful new apparel, up from last year's $19.03 and totaling $2.4 billion in sales. Additionally, consumers will spend an average of $9.02 on flowers, $8.00 on decorations and $6.79 on greeting cards. Children looking forward to a visit from the Easter bunny this year are in for a treat: spending on gifts will reach an average of $19.89, totaling $2.2 billion.

Department (36.6%) and discount stores (62.6%) will be the most popular shopping destinations for Easter gifts this year, though specialty stores carrying flowers, jewelry and electronic merchandise will also see their share of traffic (22.4%). Others will shop at specialty clothing stores (8.1%), online (14.8%) and through a catalog (3.5%).

"When out shopping for their Easter meals, many Americans will also be swayed by other items that remind them of warm weather celebrations, including apparel and home and garden accents," said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. "While spending is expected to improve from the past two years, families are still sticking to a budget with an eagle eye on low prices."

The survey also found that Easter's biggest spenders will be 25-34 year-olds ($173.41 vs. $136.79 last year) and young adults 18-24 ($145.12 vs. $125.85). Thirty-five-to-44-year-olds will spend an average of $138.55, followed by 45-54 year olds ($122.15) and 55-64 year olds ($113.32).

(Source: National Retail Federation, 04/07/11)

Cheers: Alcoholic Beverage Spending Increases

2010 was a positive year for alcoholic beverages, with the exception of non-craft domestic beers, according to the just-released "Handbook Advance 2011" report from the Beverage Information Group (BIG).

Meanwhile, a new Harris Interactive poll on Americans' alcohol consumption habits provides some additional insight. Notably, 29% of those 21 or older -- or three in 10 -- report drinking alcohol at least once per week, including 5% who drink daily and 10% who drink several times per week.

The Beverage Information Group reports that distilled spirits and wine both saw gains last year, continuing to grab share from the overall beer category. The analysts attribute the trends largely to the improving economy and a return to a "trading up" trend that had dominated the industry prior to the recession.

Distilled spirits -- which have seen steady growth over the past two years and 13 consecutive years of at least some growth -- saw sales increase 2.1%, to 192.7 cases, last year. On-premise or restaurant/bar consumption of distilled spirits also showed a slight uptick, especially in casual dining chains.

The wine category saw consumption grow by 1.7% (up from 0.8% in 2009), to 301.9 million 9-liter cases. Domestic table wines showed a particularly strong performance, outpacing imports.

Wine sales continue to increase in large part because of the wide range of products and growing number of available varietals, notes BIG manager of information services Eric Schmidt. "The Millennial generation continues to be a target for wine marketers as they position their brands as affordable and fun," he points out.

Total beer consumption declined 1.9% to 2.83 billion cases, although imports returned to showing some sales growth, in part because consumers are returning to on-premise consumption, according to the report.

Domestic beer consumption decreased 2.8%, with all categories showing declines except the super-premium, craft and flavored malt beverages category, which continued to see growth due to the craft beer segment.

Craft beers' growing popularity has been well documented, and spotlighted by developments such as Anheuser-Busch InBev's recent announcement that it is acquiring Chicago craft brewer Goose Island for $38.8 million as part of a broader strategy to increase its premium/craft offerings.

The Brewers Association reported that sales volume among small, independent craft brewers rose 11% last year, in contrast to a decline of 1% among total U.S. brewers (although crafts still represent just 4.9% of the overall beer market). MillerCoors' overall sales declined 3%, but its craft and import brands, led by Blue Moon (now the country's largest-selling craft -- at least as defined by MillerCoors), saw double-digit growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Who's drinking what?
On the consumption front, in addition to the stats cited above, the Harris Poll -- conducted online in March -- also found that 20% of adult Americans report drinking alcohol at least once per month, and 15% drink it several times per year. Nearly one-quarter (22%) say they never drink alcohol.

Nearly two in five men (38%), versus 21% of women, report drinking alcohol at least once per week.

And while overall beer sales have slowed, among those who imbibe at least several times per year, beer is the top choice. Nearly two-thirds (63%) report that beer is their choice when they drink, while 54% report drinking domestic wine. In addition, 41% drink vodka. These top three preferences have remained consistent over the past two years, according to Harris.

As for other choices, about one-third (34%) drink rum, 28% tequila, 28% imported wine, and 20% various types of whiskies, such as Irish or Canadian. Further down the list are champagne (17%), cordials and liqueurs (17%), bourbon (15%), gin (14%), scotch (11%), cognac (8%) and brandy/Armagnac (7%).

More men than women drink beer (75% versus 50%), bourbon (23% versus 6%) and scotch (17% versus 4%). More women than men drink domestic wine (63% versus 45%), champagne (23% versus 13%) and foreign wine (31% versus 26%).

Beer comes out on top when people are asked which type of alcoholic beverage they drink most often. One-third of those who drink at least several times a year (34%) say they drink beer most often, versus 22% saying they drink domestic wine most often. One in ten (12%) drink vodka most often, versus 6% for rum and 5% for imported wine. All other alcohol types are below 5%.

Alcoholic beverage consumption declines somewhat with age: 33% of Echo Boomers (21-34), 30% of Gen X/Millennials (35-46) and 29% of Baby Boomers (47-65) report drinking at least once per week, versus 26% of those 66 and older.

Beverage choices clearly vary by age. Beer is the dominant choice among the youngest groups, with 37% of Echo Boomers preferring beer (versus 20% preferring domestic wine), and 41% of Millennials preferring beer (versus 14% preferring wine). The beer preference is somewhat less marked among Boomers, with 33% saying they drink beer most often versus 22% who report drinking domestic wine most often.

However, among those 66 and older, wine is the preference of 36%, versus 22% who prefer beer.

(Source: Marketing Daily, 04/06/11)

Low Interest Rates Cannot be Dictated

Let's improve Americans' health by drastically reducing everyone's weight, significantly increasing longevity and reducing medical costs.  All we need to do is revalue the pound.  Instead of a pound being 16 ounces, it will now be 32, cutting everyone's weight in half.  We adjust our bathroom scales, our weight drops, and our health is improved.  Of course this "solution" rests on two fallacies, says Richard W. Fulmer.

• First, it conflates measurement with what is measured --adjusting your bathroom scale does not change your weight, only your perception.
• Second, the solution confuses cause and effect --weight is not necessarily the cause of health or lack thereof.

The two fallacies are so obvious that no one could possibly fall for them, right?  Sadly, no.  Many brilliant people have fervently believed in nearly identical fallacies for decades and are even now basing our country's monetary policy on them.

• Historian T. S. Ashton noted: "If we seek... for a single reason why the pace of economic development quickened about the middle of the eighteenth century, it is to low interest rates we must look."
• John Maynard Keynes, making this same observation years before, concluded that simply by manipulating a country's monetary supply and financial markets to produce artificially low interest rates, infrastructure would spring into being.
• But Keynes is confusing "cheap capital" with easy money.
• Capital must be produced through saving, that is, deferred consumption.

Dictating low rates will not improve a nation's fiscal health any more than manipulating your bathroom scale will improve your physical health, says Fulmer.

Source: Richard W. Fulmer, "A Simple Solution," Freeman Online, April 11, 2011.

Super-Charge Product Sampling, Event Marketing

There's been a lot of research conducted to figure out what consumers want from brands on social media networks such as Facebook. What can the brand provide? What type of value can it add? One of the most frequently cited is the coupon -- which is a bit underwhelming, leaves the brand out of the conversation and may be leaving dollars behind, too.

Consumers don't go to the web to talk about brands (unless they're complaining); they go to share their experiences. A better way to get consumers talking about brands online is to give them something to talk about in the first place.

Product sampling and event marketing have long proven to be the most effective way to generate trial and drive purchase conversion. Nine out of ten consumers say they would purchase a product if they experienced it and were satisfied with it, says the Promotion Marketing Association. And today, social media tools can extend the story on a scale never before imagined. Once the products are distributed, consumers can and should be encouraged to share their experiences online. We all know the power of word of mouth to generate trial and use. Nielsen reports that eight out of ten consumers say they'd try products recommended to them.

Sounds simple, but don't think you can merely hand your product or share your experience with savvy, time-crunched consumers and expect that they'll automatically try it and then talk about it on Facebook. The most effective sampling efforts reach consumers at the point of use, when and where they are most receptive to the brand's message. For example, 40% of travelers forget to pack toiletries. Giving away a razor or toothbrush in hotels can go a long way; hotel gift shops are so expensive. Provide an energy drink or other healthy snack at the top of a ski slope. You get the idea.

Then what? Once you've identified where your consumers are open to trying new things and what their needs are, give them a reason to share their experience. Research tells us that consumers are happy when they're heard and respected. But you've got to make it easy for that sharing to happen and for them to be heard.

Drive consumers to a powerful online engagement platform that enables them to share their opinions across their social media profiles. Once there, give your new brand advocates space to write what they think, through free-form comments and with relevant surveys.

Programs designed with this model consistently demonstrate a swift increase in conversations and reviews across social media channels and significant increase in intent to purchase, to recommend the product, and an increase in share of voice over the competition. A nutritional supplement brand using this method saw Facebook fans increase 94%, and 85% said they intended to purchase the product. A razor brand increased share of voice to competitors by 18%.

Bottom line? The most authentic way to get someone to provide a recommendation is to get him or her to experience the product, first-hand. Then, their review is real. It's authentic. Offering a coupon on Facebook is like dropping in on a cocktail party conversation without being invited. Give them something meaningful when they want to receive it, ask them what they really think, and have the tools at the ready that enable them to share their opinions with their friends with ease. That's authentic engagement that delivers a real return on your marketing investment.

(Source: Marketing Daily, 04/06/11)

The Case for an Open Fuel Standard

Like every president who has addressed the issue of our country's energy future since Richard Nixon, President Obama focuses on the source and level of our oil imports.  But these are not the keys to overcoming the security and economic vulnerabilities that oil causes, according to James Woolsey, a member of the Hoover Institution's Task Force on Energy Policy, and Anne Korin, codirector of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dominates the global oil market and sits on 78 percent of the world's conventional oil reserves.
• But it only accounts for about a third of world oil production because it is a conspiracy in restraint of trade.
• When non-OPEC countries drill more, OPEC simply drills less and drives prices back up.
• If demand is reduced through a one-time improvement in efficiency, OPEC again drills less and prices zip back up.
• Even if the United States did not import a drop of oil, we would still be vulnerable to the vagaries of the oil market and price manipulation by OPEC.

Oil is a presidential concern because its virtual monopoly over transportation fuel makes it a strategic commodity.  We must break oil's stranglehold on the global transportation fuel market by ensuring that new cars allow fuel competition.  One very good way to accomplish this is for Congress to adopt the Open Fuel Standard Act, says Woolsey and Korin.

• An Open Fuel Standard would require new cars to include a $100 tweak that would allow them to run on a variety of liquid fuels in addition to gasoline.
• Such fuels would include methanol, which is easily made from natural gas and biomass (and, less cleanly, from coal).

Source: James Woolsey and Anne Korin, "The Flexible Fuel Answer to OPEC," Hoover Institution, April 6, 2011.

Radio Ads and How to Make Them Work

The most memorable commercials are ones that help people relate to where they live, chuckle a little, or laugh out loud. Don’t believe me? What spots come to mind when you think about radio? Not many, because most are ignored: they’re boring. It’s important to get people curious about your business if you want to entice listeners to drop in and look around.

Before I get down to the nuts and bolts I have to explain that you need to commit to a rotation and one spot a day on one radio station will not do it. It will take a few days to establish (have listeners become familiar with the spot), because people don’t listen for commercials, they listen for music or their favorite talk show host or the news. Now is the time to be strategic. Start with a good script—one that doesn’t sound the same as everything else!

Funny Works—Period

Ask anyone what they like about a friend and a “good sense of humor” is always on that list. This applies to you, the dealer. Have a look around the area you live and think about what people find funny around them; every city/town has something. “You’ll look great driving by the beach this summer (insert a background wolf whistle and a short chirp of tires and the sound of a fender bender) and did I mention our body shop?” or “If your car gets from zero to 60 in three out of four tries, maybe it’s time for something new!” Simple, friendly, and memorable—associate humor with your business and you win.

A local place where parking is just a pain is another angle. If you are highlighting small cars in a sale then make fun of how easy it is to find a parking space at the County Fair or something similar. “This car takes up less space than Mama’s Blue Ribbon Sow and has enough room to bring home all the stuff I bought at the pie auction!” You get the idea here too. (Funny effects help but keep them simple, not corny or cartoonish).

It’s important to remember that you get bang for your buck by spending time on the script and air time; I cannot stress this enough. A good script will keep people interested. Use a company to record and produce your spots with out of market voices to catch the listener’s attention. Yes you will spend extra, but it’s worth every penny. Commercials do cost money to produce, but the return with any radio campaign will be noticed and your spots won’t just blend in. The extra cost is small potatoes when you are buying a high frequency schedule.  Above all, continuity works.

Four Steps To Doubling Your Sales Success

The law of cause and effect states that, for every result, there is a matching effort that created it. There is no such thing as accidental success. Successful actions can be defined, implemented, and measured. Success is calculable. Step #1: You must accept responsibility Success or failure is not about economies, locations, managers, brands, or anything else you may allow as excuses. Wherever you are at in your level of success you must accept responsibility for it. One excuse can open the floodgates of failure. Don’t wait for someone or something to change your destiny. The magic bus with the magic answer will never show up. Sales people and managers switch dealerships every day for what are often the wrong reasons. Often times, a sales person switches dealerships and continues experiencing the same problems, yet masked with different faces and locations. There are only two choices you can make: One is a belief in a world based upon abundance and one is a world built upon scarcity. A world of abundance has no room or need for excuses and a belief of scarcity is based upon and requires excuses. It’s simply your free will and choice. None of your actions can create sustained success until this choice is made. Step #2: You must determine the Why of success When the why gets strong, the how gets easy. Traditional goal setting often can lead you to fail. The reason for failure is because traditional goal setting focuses on the actions. Without identifying while strongly feeling why you want something, you can only lead yourself into uninspired actions. Often these are subconscious actions destined to fail. I invite you to write down one goal for yourself. Concentrate for several minutes a day for at least a week on why you want to achieve that goal, instead of how you are to achieve it. Step #3: Determine the emotions you desire Behind every goal is a desired emotion. For example, when a person buys a vehicle, they create an image in their minds eye as to how they picture themselves in the vehicle and how they think others will view them in their vehicle. Does your goal create the feeling of being happy, secure, important, or powerful? For all of us, perception creates our reality. Step #4: Success comes from focus Success comes from dominant thoughts that support your goal. You must focus on your desire. Write down your goal and ask yourself every hour if your dominating thoughts support the achievement of your desire. Often, when you do not succeed, it’s because you have consciously chosen a goal but your subconscious does not support (or even conflicts with) your goal. The key to eliminating negative and non-supporting beliefs is to use the Law of Repetition. If you begin to repetitively think of, feel, and act upon thoughts and beliefs that support your goal, you can eliminate the negative and non-supporting beliefs you currently hold.