Economic forecast: More jobs, faster growth

The first half of 2013 is expected to be sluggish as government spending cuts dampen growth and a payroll tax increase crimps consumer spending.

The nation's economy and job-creating engine will start to purr later this year as business activity picks up — more than offsetting federal government cutbacks, predict economists surveyed by USA TODAY.

After starting the year slowly, the economy will shift into a higher gear this summer and then grow for the next nine months at the fastest pace in three years, according to the median estimates of 46 economists.

"I think we're really on the verge of this becoming a self-sustaining recovery," says Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Bank.

The economists expect average monthly job gains of 171,000, with the pace quickening late this year. They expect unemployment to fall from 7.9% to 7.5% by year's end. In October, economists surveyed predicted average monthly gains of 155,000.

Several said they raised their forecasts in part after the government this month revised up its estimate of average monthly job growth from 153,000 each of the past two years to 175,000 in 2011 and 181,000 in 2012.

The revisions reflect a job market that's expanding more rapidly than previously believed, Moody says.

After gaining an average 157,000 jobs a month in the first quarter, the economy will gradually gather force and add 184,000 a month by the fourth quarter, the economists say.

The first half of 2013 is expected to be sluggish as government spending cuts dampen growth and a payroll tax increase crimps consumer spending. Those surveyed expect the economy to grow at less than a 2% annual rate the first six months of 2013.

But Congress and the White House averted a worse fate by agreeing in January to keep income taxes stable for households earning less than $450,000 a year. Thirty-seven percent of the economists are more optimistic about this year's outlook than they were three months ago.

What's more, the economists expect the effects of the federal cuts to fade by the fourth quarter, with growth picking up to a 2.7% pace. They say the housing market is rebounding, a rising stock market is boosting consumer wealth, the European financial crisis is easing and Corporate America is cash-rich.

Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, says the most positive development is that households have worked off much of the debt that hampered their spending in recent years.

Some remain cautious. ITG chief economist Steve Blitz say it's unlikely consumers will return to their free-spending ways.


Paul Davidson and Barbara Hansen, USA TODAY - February 10, 2013

Marking TV’s “Cuban” Influence

Talk is cheap. Television networks are not. Mark Cuban, billionaire, is one of the rare few that can afford both. And he’s proven his affinity for each by recently speaking at NATPE, about many topics, among them his AXS TV network and his belief in the power of television in our society.

At first blush, television isn’t thought of as “Social Media.” Social Media is typically thought of as reserved for status updates, hashtags and an oversaturation of baby pictures. Therefore, “Social” is a viral space that needs word of mouth and a busy personal network to have its impact.

The example that Mr. Cuban used was the billion or so online views for “Gangnam Style”. No one will dispute that YouTube is squarely a “social medium,” but all of those combined views of “Gangnam” didn’t match the social experience of watching the Super Bowl, voting for your favorite Idol or Voice or Dancing Star, or seeing the ball drop on New Year’s Eve.

And that’s the social aspect that Mr. Cuban was focusing upon. That TV is a place to share in an experience, not one to share your experiences. He called it “zero latency,” in that we all experience it at the same time. Despite this being the Era of Time Shifting, television is truly the Mass Medium. “Gangnam” was a meme, and as he said, “who talked about it when they watched it?” Those billion hits on YouTube don’t translate on the same cultural consciousness level as television because we don’t have the same connective experience with it.

Moreover, the latest Nielsen Cross-Platform report confirms the ongoing dominance of television in the face of the Online Spring – 97% of all video is watched on television. Online accounts for 2% of all video viewing. Mobile, 1%.

Let’s face it, no one’s going to pass on a chance to do TV because they want to stay on YouTube.

Social Media without television would be a very different place. It’s no coincidence that Mr. Cuban is talking about this - he’s invested in a broadcast television network. And it’s for exactly that reason – “to tap into the immediacy of TV and its dominance as a social media conversation starter.” Mr. Cuban believes that he will be providing a network that is of particular interest to the “Cable Nevers” and cord cutters. He hopes to give them a “unique experience” of immediate, live content that delivers the scale of broadcast television.

TV is really the only medium that begets content on another medium. We talk about TV on social media. Especially those live events that people share on TV. All it takes is a look at something like the Grammys. It’s a broadcast event, but will have the most social media mentions for the week. The fact is, television drives a large percentage of social media conversations in some way. Typically it’s about what we’re watching — or telling others they should be watching — but often it’s passing along information that they’ve learned by watching television.

Mr. Cuban concurs. “Television has become the medium to start a social conversation. We have become so Internet centric over the past 20 years that everyone assumes the solution for social media will be on the Internet. It’s TV.” He added that “We’re using television as an instigator (for posting to social media). The reality is that when you are watching TV, it’s a unique experience that you cannot get online.”

So why should we pay so much attention to what the billionaire owner of the Dallas Mavericks has to say about TV? Well, he made his fortune in the dot-com boom, selling his Internet radio business to Yahoo!. So perhaps this Internet radio guy might have learned some valuable lessons about long-term success and taking his business to the next level—by investing in broadcast television.